The greatest game for Atletico Madrid in 40 years comes today at the Vicente Claderon, a CL semifinal against Mourinho’s Chelsea. Full squad for los Cholchoneros as long as key keeper Courtois, who has a contract clause not to play against the team he belongs, Chelsea, got the clearance most probably because Atletico paid the huge fee for his clause, while Arda Turan has been fully recovered and made it to the list. Turan will start to the bench though and another problem may arrives in case that Juanfran, Gabi, Koke (plus Insua) get booked today something that means they are losing the return leg suspended.

Chelsea traveled in Madrid coming from the shocking home defeat against Sunderland, a defeat that as everything shows, will cost them the league title in the Premier League. Of course this is a CL semifinal, Mourinho has the know-how and the experience to cope with that. Peter Cech who didn’t play against the black cats will most probably feature today, right back Ivanović is suspended but Mourinho’s greater concern comes for Belgium forward Eden Hazard who has been struggling recently but made it in the list. He is doubt until last minute, Eto’o is out injured.

When comes to a CL semi final the home ground gives a strong advantage and this time this advantege becomes gigantic as long as Atletico Madrid is the host team. The rojiblancos have managed to built a fortress in Vicenta Calderon where they allow only 2 shots average in their goal in La Liga. Real escaped with a 2-2 draw shoting just 6 times on target, Barcelona failed to beat them in 4 games this season, they had only 4 shots between Atleti’s posts in the 1st round there!

It will be really difficult for Chelsea – and for every other team around – to go there and beat Atletico. Simeone with a full squad will not get all over Chelsea to win the game from the 1st minute. He has his philosophy and his strategy and if Atletico fails to score with the conventional methods they will start the siege and it will be really interesting to see how much Chelsea will last defending.

If one day your bookmaker offers you a betting credit with which to gamble, you should think very well should you take it or not. At first glance, this proposal looks great, but it can put you in some serious trouble if you lost the control over the situation.

The practice a betting company to offer loans to selected players which to enable them to bet is used by many companies. Of course, with very clear terms and conditions and with small amounts, but there are exceptions.

Just a note here, the betting credit should not be confused with the betting bonuses the bookmakers offer to their clients. They are two different things. When you take the bonus you are not obliged to return the money, but simply to play them out, while if you take a betting loan you have to return every penny you’ve got.

Here comes the main problem with betting loans which is in the ease with which they are received which brings the false sense of money you have available and you can risk by betting.

Indeed, almost all proposals for betting loans are for relatively small amounts, but there are cases where a player get offers for 30 000 pounds. This is precisely the case of a player from England, who once offered such credit within a few years lost all money. Currently he is on court which should decide must he return the whole amount or not.

In general, you should avoid taking betting or other loans for gambling. One of my favorite rules when betting on football matches is to play with money I have earned from the bookmaker. This does not imply quick profits from betting, but if a system is profitable, it will be profitable today and after an year. This gives you the security that you will not lose money when betting and find yourself in similar situation like this player from England.

The battling for keeping its place in the Premier League team of Norwich will travel to play with Southampton, which have solved this problem long ago and on the next year it again will play among the best football teams in England. Norwich definitely don’t play well away from home as they recorded four consecutive away defeats, something that doesn’t help them to improve their chances for staying in the Premier League.

This is seen by the bookies around the world and they offer very high odds for a Canaries’ win in this match. All three world biggest bookmakers – William Hill, bet365 and Bet at home offer odds of six for Norwich to win this match. The odds for a home win are between 1.55 with Bet at home, 1.57 suggested by bet365 and 1.6 which is the offer of William Hill. All those who think that this match will end with a draw will get odds of 3.75 from William Hill and bet365 and 3.8 from Bet at home.

My personal feeling about this match is that the victory will not come so easy for Mauricio Pochettino’s players. Norwich will play this match as hard as possible, just like a team which is in danger from relegation. We all know that in such matches this makes everything possible. That’s why I don’t like so much the idea to bet on so low coefficients offered by the bookies for a home win. A possible bet for a draw or for an away win also seems to me too risky as it is obvious that Norwich can’t play good enough away from home.

However, if you really need to bet on this match the most reasonable bet which I could see is to bet for Norwich on Asian Handicap with +1, although the rate of 1.83 proposed by bet365 doesn’t make this bet particularly attractive.

The goalscoring betting markets also don’t offer many good options so the best advice I can give you is just to stay away from this match and keep your money in your wallets.

Quite often on Internet you can find information about many ELO betting systems and how they can be used in sports betting. In this article we are not going to discuss in details the various statistical formulas used in calculation of the ELO coefficient, but rather how we can use this system most efficiently for the making our betting predictions.

One of the biggest problems which anyone face when using ELO system for betting on football matches is how to convert the advantage or disadvantage for either team in real odds. Here, we probably should explain that all ELO systems give a more real rankings of each team from a given championship, because the real strength of any opponent which a team must play with are calculated before the match.

One option to calculate this is to calculate the probability of a team to score a goal. For this purpose we need to do an ELO table which is not about who will win, lose or draw, but about whether a team will be able to score one, two, three or more goals.

In practice, this means we should have four or five ELO tables which we should convert into probabilities for each team to score a goal or not to. When we are ready, all that we should do is to convert the chances for each of both teams to score a certain number of goals in a comparative table.

Through this table and comparing the odds of both teams, we can easily calculate the percentages for each result and hence grouping together the different rates for different results. When we are ready with that we can easily calculate the chances of each team to be the winner in a match, to make a draw and so on. Similarly, we can easily calculate the odds for Under or Over 2.5 goals scored by both teams as well as any other similar betting option.

I am pretty sure that this betting system is interesting enough and you could try it in your betting repertoire.